Curriculum Vitae (CV) (Short version) firstname.lastname@example.org, Last updated: August 2015
University of Arizona
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics
2015: The Climate Risk Premium
Age and Perspective: Dynamic Consistency With Time-Varying Discount Rates
Ambiguous Tipping Points (with Christian Traeger)
2014: Steering the Climate System: Using Inertia to Lower the Cost of Policy (with Ivan Rudik)
General Equilibrium Rebound from Energy Efficiency Policies (new version May 2015)
Playing the Climate Dominoes: Tipping Points and the Cost of Delaying Policy (with Christian Traeger, revise and resubmit)2013: Green Expectations: Current Effects of Anticipated Carbon Pricing (revise and resubmit)
Escape From Third-Best: Rating Emissions for Intensity Standards (revise and resubmit)
Work in progress: Energy transitions; Solar subsidies (with Ashley Langer); Learning about climate change (with Ivan Rudik and Max Rosenthal)
Econ 696V: Environmental and Energy Economics: Applied Theory (graduate)
Econ 150: Energy and Environmental Challenges (undergraduate)
Interests: Environmental and energy economics, Time and uncertainty, Complex systems
Primary Peer-Reviewed Publications
A Top-Down Approach to Projecting Market Impacts of Climate Change
Lemoine, D. and S. Kapnick. 2015. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2759
To evaluate policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, economic models require estimates of how future climate change will affect well-being. So far, nearly all estimates of the economic impacts of future warming have been developed by combining estimates of impacts in individual sectors of the economy. Recent work has used variation in warming over time and space to produce top-down estimates of how past climate and weather shocks have affected economic output. Here we propose a statistical framework for converting these top-down estimates of past economic costs of regional warming into projections of the economic cost of future global warming. Combining the latest physical climate models, socioeconomic projections, and economic estimates of past impacts, we find that future warming could raise the expected rate of economic growth in richer countries, reduce the expected rate of economic growth in poorer countries, and increase the variability of growth by increasing the climate’s variability. This study suggests we should rethink the focus on global impacts and the use of deterministic frameworks for modelling impacts and policy.
Watch Your Step: Optimal Policy in a Tipping Climate
Lemoine, D. and C. Traeger. 2014. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(1):137-166. doi:10.1257/pol.6.1.137
NBER working paper version (Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change)
We investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. The welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. Our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the system's response in each period. Simulations with a recursive, numerical climate-economy model show that tipping possibilities raise the optimal carbon tax more strongly over time. The resulting policy paths ultimately lower optimal peak warming by up to 0.5 degrees C. Different types of post-tipping shifts in dynamics generate qualitatively different optimal pre-tipping policy paths.
PAGES newsletter perspective on abrupt change (Feb 2012)
The Economics of Solar Electricity
Baker, E., M. Fowlie, D. Lemoine, and S.S. Reynolds. 2013. Annual Review of Resource Economics 5(1):387-426. doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-091912-151843
Link for complimentary one-time access
Working paper version (EI@Haas)
The benefits and costs of increasing solar electricity generation depend on the scale of the increase and on the timeframe over which it occurs. Short-run analyses focus on the cost-effectiveness of incremental increases in solar capacity, holding the rest of the power system fixed. Solar's variability adds value if its power occurs at high-demand times and displaces relatively carbon-intensive generation. Medium-run analyses consider the implications of non-incremental changes in solar capacity. The cost of each installation may fall through experience effects, but the cost of grid integration increases when solar requires ancillary services and fails to displace investment in other types of generation. Long-run analyses consider the role of solar in reaching twenty-first century carbon targets. Solar's contribution depends on the representation of grid integration costs, on the availability of other low-carbon technologies, and on the potential for technological advances. By surveying analyses for different time horizons, this paper begins to connect and integrate a fairly disjointed literature on the economics of solar energy.
Trapped Between Two Tails: Trading Off Scientific Uncertainties via Climate Targets
Lemoine, D. and H.C. McJeon. 2013. Environmental Research Letters 8:034019. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034019
Climate sensitivity distributions depend on the possibility that models share biases
Lemoine, D.M. 2010. Journal of Climate 23(16):4395-4415. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3503.1
© Copyright 2010 AMS
Paleoclimatic warming increased carbon dioxide concentrations
Lemoine, D.M. 2010. Journal of Geophysical Research 115:D22122. doi:10.1029/2010JD014725
Lemoine, D.M., R.J. Plevin, A.S. Cohn, A.D. Jones, A.R. Brandt, S.E. Vergara, and D.M. Kammen. 2010. Environmental Science & Technology 44(19):7347-7350. doi:10.1021/es100418p
Energy Displacement Model (Excel spreadsheet)
Valuing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles' battery capacity using a real options framework
Lemoine, D.M. 2010. The Energy Journal 31(2):113-143.
This article copyrighted and reprinted by permission from the International Association for Energy Economics. The article first appeared in The Energy Journal (Vol. 31, No. 2). Visit The Energy Journal online at http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/journal.aspx
Commentary in USAEE's Dialogue (November 2008)
Coverage by Green Car Congress (April 13, 2010)
Commentary on Sioshansi paper in OR Forum (Feb 2012)
An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Lemoine, D.M., D.M. Kammen, and A.E. Farrell. 2008. Environmental Research Letters 3(1):014003. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/1/014003
Contributor to A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California. Part 1: Technical Analysis (2007)
Commentary on EVs/PHEVs with Dan Kammen in Accenture's Betting on science: Disruptive technologies in transport fuels (2009)
Other Peer-Reviewed Publications
The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio
Lemoine, D.M., S. Fuss, J. Szolgayova, M. Obersteiner, and D.M. Kammen. 2012. Climatic Change 113(2):141-162. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4
Working paper version (free)
Reduce growth rate of light-duty vehicle travel to meet 2050 global climate goals
Sager, J., J.S. Apte, D.M. Lemoine, and D.M. Kammen. 2011. Environmental Research Letters 6(2):024018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024018
Addendum to "An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles"
Lemoine, D.M. and D.M. Kammen. 2009. Environmental Research Letters 4(3):039701. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/039701
Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas emission reductions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Kammen, D.M., S.M. Arons, D.M. Lemoine, and H. Hummel. 2009. In Plug-in Electric Vehicles: What role for Washington?, ed. D.B. Sandalow, 170-191. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
A landscape-level GIS analysis of streamside management zones on the Cumberland Plateau
Lemoine, D., J.P. Evans, and C.K. Smith. 2006. Journal of Forestry 104(3):25-31.
Today’s environmental challenges emerge from the interaction between complex social and natural systems. These complex interactions mean that uncertainty about costs and benefits is an inevitably crucial part of policy problems. Derek Lemoine’s research incorporates scientific and economic uncertainty into tractable modeling frameworks. For instance, while we understand that the correct price for greenhouse gas emissions is not zero, the integrated assessment models used to estimate this price have assumed that the climate system evolves smoothly and predictably. Yet we think that the possibility of abrupt changes could be a major part of these emissions' cost. One of Derek's papers therefore builds possible climate tipping points into a benchmark climate-economy model in order to understand how different types of tipping points affect the optimal carbon price.
At the University of Arizona, Derek works on several projects at the intersection of uncertainty, dynamics, and climate change. For instance, he has used economic theory to better understand how to set emission ratings in existing biofuel policies. He has also considered how more stringent climate policies trade off uncertainty about damages from climate change for uncertainty about the cost of reducing emissions. In addition to his work in economics, he has published in top journals in geoscience, forestry, and environmental science. These papers’ topics include statistical analyses of ice core records, methods for learning about actual climate change from global climate models’ simulations, and the energy implications of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
Guided by the philosophy that research questions should drive methods, Derek obtained his Ph.D. in 2011 from the interdisciplinary Energy and Resources Group at the University of California, Berkeley. By working in multiple departments, he also obtained a concurrent Master’s in Economics from UC Berkeley and key advising from Agricultural and Resource Economics. His undergraduate degree was in Philosophy and in Integrative Environmental Solutions, from the University of the South in Sewanee, TN. He teaches a graduate class on applied theory approaches to environmental economics. He also teaches a freshman class that introduces core economic concepts through energy and environmental applications.