Curriculum Vitae (CV) (Short version) email@example.com, Last updated: January 2014
University of Arizona
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics
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Green Expectations: Current Effects of Anticipated Carbon Pricing
Escape From Third-Best: Rating Emissions for Intensity Standards
Work in progress: Climate damages, Emission trajectories, Macroeconomic rebound, Energy transitions
Econ 696V: Environmental and Energy Economics: Applied Theory (graduate)
Econ 150: Energy and Environmental Challenges (undergraduate)
Interests: Environmental and energy economics, Time and uncertainty, Complex systems
Watch Your Step: Optimal Policy in a Tipping Climate
Lemoine, D. and C. Traeger. 2014. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(1):137-166. doi:10.1257/pol.6.1.137
NBER working paper version (Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change)
We investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. The welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. Our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the system's response in each period. Simulations with a recursive, numerical climate-economy model show that tipping possibilities raise the optimal carbon tax more strongly over time. The resulting policy paths ultimately lower optimal peak warming by up to 0.5 degrees C. Different types of post-tipping shifts in dynamics generate qualitatively different optimal pre-tipping policy paths.
PAGES newsletter perspective on abrupt change (Feb 2012)
The Economics of Solar Electricity
Baker, E., M. Fowlie, D. Lemoine, and S.S. Reynolds. 2013. Annual Review of Resource Economics 5(1):387-426. doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-091912-151843
Link for complimentary one-time access
Working paper version (EI@Haas)
The benefits and costs of increasing solar electricity generation depend on the scale of the increase and on the timeframe over which it occurs. Short-run analyses focus on the cost-effectiveness of incremental increases in solar capacity, holding the rest of the power system fixed. Solar's variability adds value if its power occurs at high-demand times and displaces relatively carbon-intensive generation. Medium-run analyses consider the implications of non-incremental changes in solar capacity. The cost of each installation may fall through experience effects, but the cost of grid integration increases when solar requires ancillary services and fails to displace investment in other types of generation. Long-run analyses consider the role of solar in reaching twenty-first century carbon targets. Solar's contribution depends on the representation of grid integration costs, on the availability of other low-carbon technologies, and on the potential for technological advances. By surveying analyses for different time horizons, this paper begins to connect and integrate a fairly disjointed literature on the economics of solar energy.
Trapped Between Two Tails: Trading Off Scientific Uncertainties via Climate Targets
Lemoine, D. and H.C. McJeon. 2013. Environmental Research Letters 8:034019. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034019
The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio
Lemoine, D.M., S. Fuss, J. Szolgayova, M. Obersteiner, and D.M. Kammen. 2012. Climatic Change 113(2):141-162. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4
Working paper version (free)
Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2 degrees Celsius temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from "carbon-free" technologies into "emission intensity" technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO2 constraint earlier in the century.
Climate sensitivity distributions depend on the possibility that models share biases
Lemoine, D.M. 2010. Journal of Climate 23(16):4395-4415. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3503.1
© Copyright 2010 AMS
Paleoclimatic warming increased carbon dioxide concentrations
Lemoine, D.M. 2010. Journal of Geophysical Research 115:D22122. doi:10.1029/2010JD014725
Lemoine, D.M., R.J. Plevin, A.S. Cohn, A.D. Jones, A.R. Brandt, S.E. Vergara, and D.M. Kammen. 2010. Environmental Science & Technology 44(19):7347-7350. doi:10.1021/es100418p
Energy Displacement Model (Excel spreadsheet)
Valuing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles' battery capacity using a real options framework
Lemoine, D.M. 2010. The Energy Journal 31(2):113-143.
This article copyrighted and reprinted by permission from the International Association for Energy Economics. The article first appeared in The Energy Journal (Vol. 31, No. 2). Visit The Energy Journal online at http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/journal.aspx
Commentary in USAEE's Dialogue (November 2008)
Coverage by Green Car Congress (April 13, 2010)
Commentary on Sioshansi paper in OR Forum (Feb 2012)
Reduce growth rate of light-duty vehicle travel to meet 2050 global climate goals
Sager, J., J.S. Apte, D.M. Lemoine, and D.M. Kammen. 2011. Environmental Research Letters 6(2):024018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024018
An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Lemoine, D.M., D.M. Kammen, and A.E. Farrell. 2008. Environmental Research Letters 3(1):014003. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/1/014003
Contributor to A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California. Part 1: Technical Analysis (2007)
Addendum to "An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles"
Lemoine, D.M. and D.M. Kammen. 2009. Environmental Research Letters 4(3):039701. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/039701
This addendum extends the analysis of 'An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles' (D M Lemoine et al 2008 Environ. Res. Lett. 3 014003) to the case of all-electric vehicles (EVs). We pay particular attention to grid impacts, break-even battery costs, and the three ways in which EVs could dramatically change the results we obtained for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Commentary on EVs/PHEVs with Dan Kammen in Accenture's Betting on science: Disruptive technologies in transport fuels (2009)
Coverage by environmentalresearchweb (August 3, 2009)
Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas emission reductions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Kammen, D.M., S.M. Arons, D.M. Lemoine, and H. Hummel. 2009. In Plug-in Electric Vehicles: What role for Washington?, ed. D.B. Sandalow, 170-191. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
A landscape-level GIS analysis of streamside management zones on the Cumberland Plateau
Lemoine, D., J.P. Evans, and C.K. Smith. 2006. Journal of Forestry 104(3):25-31.
Berry, Ian. 2006. Report says stream protection falls short. Chattanooga Times Free Press (Tennessee), May 30
Greenhouse gas property: An adaptable climate policy for an uncertain world
Discussion paper from 2007
Today’s environmental challenges emerge from the interaction between complex social and natural systems. These complex interactions mean that uncertainty about costs and benefits is an inevitably crucial part of policy problems. Derek Lemoine’s research incorporates scientific and economic uncertainty into tractable modeling frameworks. For instance, while we understand that the correct price for greenhouse gas emissions is not zero, the integrated assessment models used to estimate this price have assumed that the climate system evolves smoothly and predictably. Yet we think that the possibility of abrupt changes could be a major part of these emissions' cost. One of Derek's papers therefore builds possible climate tipping points into a benchmark climate-economy model in order to understand how different types of tipping points affect the optimal carbon price.
At the University of Arizona, Derek works on several projects at the intersection of uncertainty, dynamics, and climate change. For instance, he has used economic theory to better understand how to set emission ratings in existing biofuel policies. He has also considered how more stringent climate policies trade off uncertainty about damages from climate change for uncertainty about the cost of reducing emissions. In addition to his work in economics, he has published in top journals in geoscience, forestry, and environmental science. These papers’ topics include statistical analyses of ice core records, methods for learning about actual climate change from global climate models’ simulations, and the energy implications of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
Guided by the philosophy that research questions should drive methods, Derek obtained his Ph.D. in 2011 from the interdisciplinary Energy and Resources Group at the University of California, Berkeley. By working in multiple departments, he also obtained a concurrent Master’s in Economics from UC Berkeley and key advising from Agricultural and Resource Economics. His undergraduate degree was in Philosophy and in Integrative Environmental Solutions, from the University of the South in Sewanee, TN. He teaches a graduate class on applied theory approaches to environmental economics. He also teaches a freshman class that introduces core economic concepts through energy and environmental applications.